Experiments and Causal Inference

Weekly Schedule

Please refer to the Syllabus PDF for the most up-to-date schedule and full reading lists. Click the purple Slides badges to view lecture slides. Readings should be completed before class. Items marked Due must be submitted via Teams before that week’s class begins (Thu 14:20).

Part I: Foundations of Causal Inference

Week 1 — Introduction and Potential Outcomes Slides

• Neyman-Rubin causal model
• Fundamental problem of causal inference (FPOCI)
• Causal estimands; Post-treatment bias under truncation by death
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 1; Angrist & Pischke Ch. 1; Holland (1986)

Week 2 — Randomization Inference Slides

• Randomized experiments
• Fisher’s approach to inference, permutation tests
• Sharp null, randomization distribution
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 5 (skim Ch. 4); Rosenbaum (2002) Ch. 2

Week 3 — Inference for the Average Treatment Effect Slides

• Neyman’s approach to inference for the ATE
• Finite-sample vs superpopulation inference
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 6, 9, 10; Angrist & Pischke Ch. 2

Week 4 — Linear Regression and Randomized Experiments Slides

• Simple linear regression in experiments
• Covariate adjustment in experiments with regression
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 7, 9, 10; Lin (2013); Freedman (2008)

Part II: Observational Studies

Week 5 — Observational Studies I Slides

• Selection on observables
• Regression for observational data
• Readings: Angrist & Pischke Ch. 3

Week 6 — Observational Studies II Slides Slides (b)

• DAGs and the back-door criterion
• Sensitivity analysis; Partial identification
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 21–22; Morgan & Winship Ch. 4 (handout provided)

Week 7 — In-Class Group Project Meetings

• 30 minutes per group to discuss and materialize project ideas/topics

Part III: Quasi-Experimental Methods

Week 8 — Instrumental Variables I Slides

• Noncompliance in randomized experiments
• Instrumental variables in observational studies
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 23–24; Angrist & Pischke Ch. 4

Week 9 — Instrumental Variables II Slides

• Two-stage least squares
• Review of IV applications

Week 10 — Panel Data, Fixed Effects, and Difference-in-Differences Slides

• Fixed effects and first differences
• Difference-in-differences
• Readings: Angrist & Pischke Ch. 5; Imai & Kim (2019)

Week 11 — Difference-in-Differences Cont.

• Applications of difference-in-differences

Week 12 — Matching and Weighting Estimators Slides

• Propensity scores, matching, and weighting
• Readings: Imbens & Rubin Ch. 13, 15, 18; Stuart (2010)

Week 13 — Regression Discontinuity Designs Slides

• Sharp RD designs, identification
• Estimation and bandwidth selection
• Readings: Angrist & Pischke Ch. 6; Imbens & Lemieux (2008)

Week 14 — Regression Discontinuity Designs Cont. Slides

• Fuzzy RD designs
• Applications of RDDs
• Readings: Cattaneo, Idrobo & Titiunik (2020)

Part IV: Advanced Topics & Research Workshop

Week 15 — Advanced Topics TENTATIVE

• One of the following topics will be covered (to be announced):
• Option A — Causal Mechanisms: Mediation analysis, controlled direct effects, natural direct and indirect effects Slides
  • Readings: Imai, Keele & Yamamoto (2010); Imai et al. (2011); Acharya, Blackwell & Sen (2016)
• Option B — Causal Machine Learning: Heterogeneous treatment effects, CATE estimation, causal forests, double/debiased ML

Week 16 — Final Group Project Presentations

• Each group presents their research project, followed by structured peer feedback and class discussion.

Grading

Research Project

In lieu of midterms and a final exam, students write a short paper applying or extending the causal inference methods learned in class. The paper should be no longer than 20 double-spaced pages and focus on research design, data, methodology, results, and analysis.

Sample Evaluation

To give you a clear sense of expectations and grading criteria, here is a sample final report with instructor evaluation from a previous offering:

• Sample Final Report (PDF) — a student project using DiD, Callaway & Sant’Anna, and DML
• Sample Instructor Evaluation (PDF) — detailed rubric scores, comments, and suggestions (89.5/100)

Project Milestones

Structured Peer Feedback

Final presentations are accompanied by structured peer feedback. After each presentation, every student completes a feedback form covering four areas: Research Question, Identification Strategy, Threats & Limitations, and a Constructive Suggestion. Each area includes space for written comments and a 1–5 rating.

→ Open Printable Feedback Form

Feedback forms are shared with presenters to support their final revisions. The quality and thoughtfulness of your feedback — not the scores you give — contributes to your Participation grade. Presenter grades are determined by the instructor independently.

Homework

You will have two types of homework:

1. Problem sets — a mix of conceptual questions, analytic problems, computer simulations, and data analysis that closely resemble what we discuss in lectures.
2. The Effect assignments — exercises from our third textbook.

You are encouraged to work in groups, but you must always write your own solutions including your own computer code. It is hugely beneficial to attempt the problems on your own before working in groups.

Late policy: Late submissions are penalized 1 percentage point of the assignment’s weight per day. For example, an assignment worth 7% of the course grade turned in 3 days late has a maximum attainable score of 4%.

One-Page Summaries, Presentations & Reading Assignments

• One-Page Summaries: Before each class, every student submits a 1-page summary of the assigned papers. Graded on a complete/incomplete basis — submission is what counts.
• Paper Introduction Presentations: Students take turns presenting assigned papers each week. Presentations should cover the value of the topic and the motivational story. All students should read the paper before class. Quality of presentations is reflected in the Participation grade.

One-Page Summary Guideline

Choose 5 papers from the assigned reading list and write a one-page summary addressing the following:

1. Main Question — What is the main question of the paper? Why do we care?
2. Parameters of Interest — What model aspects or facts are being estimated? What parameter answers the main question?
3. Data — What is the unit of observation? Where are the data from? How were they collected? Do the data appear reliable?
4. Answers — What does the paper find? What are the main weaknesses? How could it be improved? If you were a practitioner, what implications would you draw?
5. Extensions — After the current paper, what could be done next in this general area?

You may also discuss: one-sentence conclusion, institutional background, conceptual framework, or relevant literature. Submit as PDF via Teams.

Reading Assignments by Topic

Students will present papers from the following five topic groups. Each group contains five readings — a textbook chapter plus published applications from top journals. Presentation assignments will be finalized before the first presentation week.

Note: If you have a top-journal paper that uses a method covered in one of these modules (e.g., a DiD paper for the DiD module) and you would prefer to present it instead, please contact the instructor before presentations begin to request a substitution.

1. Field Experiments (Weeks 4–5)

1. Angrist, J. D. & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Ch. 2, “The Experimental Ideal.” Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
2. Montaguti, E., Neslin, S. A., & Valentini, S. (2016). “Can Marketing Campaigns Induce Multichannel Buying and More Profitable Customers? A Field Experiment.” Marketing Science, 35(2), 201–217.
3. Sahni, N. S., Zou, D., & Chintagunta, P. K. (2017). “Do Targeted Discount Offers Serve as Advertising? Evidence from 70 Field Experiments.” Management Science, 63(8), 2688–2705.
4. Bapna, R., Ramaprasad, J., Shmueli, G., & Umyarov, A. (2016). “One-Way Mirrors in Online Dating: A Randomized Field Experiment.” Management Science, 62(11), 3100–3122.
5. Cook, T. D., Campbell, D. T., & Shadish, W. R. (2002). Ch. 1, “Experiments and Generalized Causal Inference.” Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Houghton Mifflin.

2. Instrumental Variables (Weeks 8–9)

1. Angrist, J. D. & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Ch. 4, “Instrumental Variables in Action.” Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
2. Angrist, J. D., Imbens, G. W., & Rubin, D. B. (1996). “Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 91(434), 444–455.
3. Zettelmeyer, F., Scott Morton, F., & Silva-Risso, J. (2006). “How the Internet Lowers Prices: Evidence from Matched Survey and Automobile Transaction Data.” Journal of Marketing Research, 43(2), 168–181.
4. Dewan, S. & Ramaprasad, J. (2012). “Music Blogging, Online Sampling, and the Long Tail.” Information Systems Research, 23(3), 1056–1067.
5. Barron, K., Kung, E., & Proserpio, D. (2021). “The Effect of Home-Sharing on House Prices and Rents: Evidence from Airbnb.” Marketing Science, 40(1), 23–47.

3. Difference-in-Differences (Weeks 10–11)

1. Angrist, J. D. & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Ch. 5, “Parallel Worlds: Fixed Effects, Difference-in-Differences, and Panel Data.” Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
2. Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., & Mullainathan, S. (2004). “How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(1), 249–275.
3. Dranove, D., Kessler, D., McClellan, M., & Satterthwaite, M. (2003). “Is More Information Better? The Effects of ‘Report Cards’ on Health Care Providers.” Journal of Political Economy, 111(3), 555–588.
4. Goldfarb, A. & Tucker, C. E. (2014). “Conducting Research with Quasi-Experiments: A Guide for Marketers.” Rotman School of Management Working Paper No. 2420920.
5. Foerderer, J., Lueker, N., & Heinzl, A. (2021). “And the Winner Is…? The Desirable and Undesirable Effects of Platform Awards.” Information Systems Research, 32(4), 1155–1172.

4. Matching Methods (Week 12)

1. Gordon, Brett R., et al. (2019). “A Comparison of Approaches to Advertising Measurement: Evidence from Big Field Experiments at Facebook.” Marketing Science, 38(2), 193–225.
2. Xu, K., Chan, J., Ghose, A., & Han, S. P. (2017). “Battle of the Channels: The Impact of Tablets on Digital Commerce.” Management Science, 63(5), 1469–1492.
3. Adamopoulos, P., Todri, V., & Ghose, A. (2020). “Demand Effects of the Internet-of-Things Sales Channel: Evidence from Automating the Purchase Process.” Information Systems Research, 32(1), 238–267.
4. Kim, Jun Hyung, et al. (2021). “Home-Tutoring Services Assisted with Technology: Investigating the Role of Artificial Intelligence Using a Randomized Field Experiment.” Journal of Marketing Research.
5. Son, Y., Oh, W., Han, S. P., & Park, S. (2020). “When Loyalty Goes Mobile: Effects of Mobile Loyalty Apps on Purchase, Redemption, and Competition.” Information Systems Research, 31(3), 835–847.

5. Regression Discontinuity Design (Weeks 13–14)

1. Angrist, J. D. & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Ch. 6, “Getting a Little Jumpy: Regression Discontinuity Designs.” Mostly Harmless Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
2. Flammer, C. (2015). “Does Corporate Social Responsibility Lead to Superior Financial Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach.” Management Science, 61(11), 2549–2568.
3. Hartmann, W., Nair, H. S., & Narayanan, S. (2011). “Identifying Causal Marketing Mix Effects Using a Regression Discontinuity Design.” Marketing Science, 30(6), 1079–1097.
4. Jo, Wooyong, et al. (2020). “Protecting Consumers from Themselves: Assessing Consequences of Usage Restriction Laws on Online Game Usage and Spending.” Marketing Science, 39(1), 117–133.
5. Flammer, C. & Bansal, P. (2017). “Does a Long-Term Orientation Create Value? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity.” Strategic Management Journal, 38(9), 1827–1847.